Inference
An inference is a conclusion a person can draw from certain observed or supposed facts. For example, if the lights are on in a house and voices can be heard coming from the house, a person might infer that someone is at home. But this inference may or may not be correct. Possibly the people in the house did not turn the lights and the television off when they left the house.
In this section of the test, each exercise begins with a statement of facts that you are to regard as true. After each statement of facts you will find several possible inferences—that is, conclusions that some persons might draw from the stated facts. Examine each inference separately, and make a decision as to its degree of truth or falsity.
For each inference you will find response options labeled T, PT, ID, PF, and F. For
each inference select as follows:
- T if you think the inference is definitely TRUE; that it properly follows beyond a reasonable doubt from the statement of facts given.
- PT if, in the light of facts given, you think the inference is PROBABLY TRUE; thatit is more likely to be true than false.
- ID if you decide that there are INSUFFICIENT DATA; that you cannot tell from the facts given whether the inference is likely to be true or false; if the facts provide no basis for judging one way or the other.
- PF if, in the light of the facts given, you think the inference is PROBABLY FALSE; that it is more likely to be false than true.
- F if you think the inference is definitely FALSE; that it is wrong, either because it misinterprets the facts given, or because it contradicts the facts or necessary inferences from those facts.
Sometimes, in deciding whether an inference is probably true or probably false, you will have to use certain commonly accepted knowledge or information that practically every person has. This will be illustrated in the example that follows.
Inference Example Question
Statement:
During the past month, managers scheduled for international assignments voluntarily attended our company's cross cultural business training workshop. All of the managers reported that the quality of the training was high and focused on valuable work skills that could be immediately applied.
Proposed Inferences:
1. Most managers who attended the workshop were interested in learning more about cross - cultural business issues.
The correct answer is Probably True, because, all of the managers voluntarily attended the workshop, and had a reason to learn more about cross-cultural issues, that is - their upcoming international assignments. It cannot be considered definitely true because there still exists the possibility that managers attended for other reasons, such as to get a break from their day-to-day work.
2. The majority of the training was devoted to rules and regulations for doing business in this country.
The correct answer is Probably False, because the training focused on cross-cultural business. It cannot be considered definitely false because the specific course content is not provided.
3. Workshop attendance is likely to increase over the next few months.
There is no evidence for inference 3 thus the answer is Insufficient Data, because there is insufficient data for making a judgement on the matter. For example no information is provided about who the target market is for the workshop, how many people here already been through the workshop, or whether or when the workshop will be offered again.
4. A few participants felt that none of the skills taught in the workshop were job-relevant.
The answer here is False, because all managers reported that the workshop focused on applicable job skills.
5. Managers' reactions to the training were tracked.
The correct answer is True, because some type of comment was necessary to know about managers' positive reactions to the workshop.
Recognition of Assumptions
An assumption is something presupposed or taken for granted. When you say, “I’ll graduate in June,” you take for granted or assume that you will be alive in June, that your school will judge you to be eligible for graduation in June, and similar things.
This section of the test contains a number of statements, each of which is followed by several proposed assumptions.
You are to decide for each assumption whether a person, in making the given statement, is really making that assumption–that is, taking it for granted, justifiably or not.
If you think that the given assumption is taken for granted in the statement, select ASSUMPTION MADE. If you think the assumption is not necessarily taken for granted in the statement, select ASSUMPTION NOT MADE. Remember to judge each assumption independently.
Recognition of Assumptions Example Question
Statement:
“We need to save time in getting there so we’d better go by plane.”
Proposed Assumptions:
1. Going by plane will take less time than going by some other means of
transportation.
The correct answer is Assumption Made, because it is assumed in the statement that the greater speed of a plane over the speeds of other means of transportation will enable the group to reach its destination in less time.
2. There is plane service available to us for at least part of the distance to the destination.
The correct answer is Assumption Made, because this is necessarily assumed in the statement as, in order to save time by plane, it must be possible to go by plane.
3. Travel by plane is more convenient than travel by train.
The correct answer is Assumption Not Made, because this assumption is not made in the statement - the statement has to do with saving time, and says nothing about convenience or about any other specific mode of travel.
Deduction
In this section of the test, each exercise consists of several statements (premises) followed by several suggested conclusions. For the purposes of this test, consider the statements in each exercise as true without exception. Read the first conclusion beneath the statements. If you think it necessarily follows from the statements given, select CONCLUSION FOLLOWS. If you think it is not a necessary conclusion from the statements given, select CONCLUSION DOES NOT FOLLOW, even though you may believe it to be true from your general knowledge.
Likewise, read and judge each of the other conclusions. Try not to let your prejudices influence your judgment—just stick to the given statements (premises) and judge each conclusion as to whether it necessarily follows from the premise.
The word some in any of these statements means an indefinite part or quantity of a class of things. Some means at least a portion, and perhaps all of the class. Thus, “Some holidays are rainy” means at least one, possibly more than one, and perhaps even all holidays are rainy.
Deduction Example Question
Statement:
Some Sundays are rainy. All rainy days are boring. Therefore, ...
Proposed Conclusions:
1. no clear days are boring.
The correct answer is Conclusion Does Not Follow. You cannot tell from the statements whether or not clear days are boring. Some may be.
2. some Sundays are boring.
The correct answer is Conclusion Follows from the statements as, according to them, the rainy Sundays must be boring.
3. some Sundays are not boring.
The correct answer is Conclusion Does Not Follow, even though you may know that some Sundays are very pleasant.
Interpretation
Each exercise in this section consists of a short paragraph followed by several suggested conclusions.
For the purpose of this test, assume that everything in the short paragraph is true. The problem is to judge whether or not each of the proposed conclusions logically follows beyond a reasonable doubt from the information given in the paragraph.
If you think that the proposed conclusion follows beyond a reasonable doubt (even though it may not follow absolutely and necessarily), then select CONCLUSION FOLLOWS in the response section. If you think that the conclusion does not follow beyond a reasonable doubt from the facts given, then select CONCLUSION DOES NOT FOLLOW. Remember to judge each conclusion independently.
Interpretation Example Question
Statement:
A study of vocabulary growth in children from eight months to six years old shows that the size of spoken vocabulary increases from 0 words at age eight months to 2,562 words at age six.
Proposed Conclusions:
1. None of the children in this study had learned to talk by the age of six months.
The correct answer is Conclusion Follows. The conclusion follows beyond a reasonable doubt since, according to the statement, the size of the spoken vocabulary at eight months was 0 words.
2. Vocabulary growth is slowest during the period when children are learning to walk.
The correct answer is Conclusion Does Not Follow, as there is no information given that relates growth of vocabulary to walking.
Evaluation of Arguments
In making decisions about important questions, it is desirable to be able to distinguish between arguments that are strong and arguments that are weak, as far as the question at issue is concerned. For an argument to be strong, it must be both important and directly related to the question.
An argument is weak if it is not directly related to the question (even though it may be of great general importance), or if it is of minor importance, or if it is related only to trivial aspects of the question.
Below is a series of questions. Each question is followed by several arguments. For the purpose of this test, you are to regard each argument as true. The problem then is to decide whether it is a strong or a weak argument.
Select ARGUMENT STRONG if you think the argument is strong, or select ARGUMENT WEAK if you think the argument is weak. Judge each argument separately on its own merit. Try not to let your personal attitude toward the question influence your evaluation of the argument, since each argument is to be regarded as true.
In the example, note that the argument is evaluated as to how well it supports the side of the question indicated.
Evaluation of Arguments Example Question
Statement:
Should all young people in the United Kingdom go on to higher education?
Proposed Arguments
1. Yes; higher education provides an opportunity to young people for social growth and learning.
The correct answer is Argument Strong. If the argument is true, as the instructions require us to assume, social growth and learning describe important benefits for going on to higher education.
2. No; a large percentage of young people do not have enough ability or interest to derive any benefit from higher education.
The correct answer is Argument Strong. When accepted as true, it is a weighty argument against all young people going to higher education.
3. No; excessive studying permanently warps an individual's personality.
The correct answer is Argument Weak. This argument, although of great general importance when accepted as true, is not directly related to the question, because attendance at college does not necessarily require excessive studying.